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Thursday's the Day to Watch, Never Mind Tuesday

Welcome to Monday Mortgage Call, a weekly prognosis by Boston mortgage broker Brian Cavanaugh of where the all-important lending rates might be headed.

Overall, I suspect Thursday will be the most active day of the week with the consumer spending data and 30-year bond auction, but Friday's data can also cause movement in rates. The calmest day will likely be Tuesday.

It will probably be a calmer week than last week in terms of mortgage rate movement although we still should see rate changes multiple days. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed the week at 2.88 percent after touching 2.92 percent immediately after November's stronger than forecast employment report was posted.

I believe this week will help determine if that yield will break above 2.9 percent again or retreat toward 2.62 percent. Since mortgage rates tend to follow bond yields, the latter would be preferred by mortgage shoppers. Because the 2.92 percent on Friday was momentary, I am hesitant to rely on it as a basis in switching to float recommendations.Therefore, I am maintaining the conservative stance towards locking or floating an interest rate for the time being.

As for whether you should lock in an interest rate now, I would:

LOCK if your closing was taking place within seven days…

LOCK if your closing was taking place between eight and 20 days…

LOCK if your closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days…

LOCK if your closing was taking place over 60 days from now…
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